- 6/24 (25%) economists expect BOJ to end yield curve control (YCC) this year
- 11/24 economists expect BOJ to end YCC in 2024
- 5/24 economists expect BOJ toe end YCC in 2025 or later
- 2/24 economists expect BOJ to not end YCC at all
- 10/24 economists expect BOJ to start scaling back on ultra-easy policy in July
- 4/24 economists expect BOJ to do so earlier in June
For some context, the previous poll in April showed 56% of economists expecting the BOJ to end its yield curve control policy this year. So, the drop to 25% shows the change in bias and sentiment, with previously even seeing no calls for the BOJ not to end said policy at all (now it is 8%).
Besides that, it would seem like July is where the economists are drawing the line for a last chance for the BOJ to perform any major policy tweaks. Thereafter, a global downturn may make things more difficult for the Japanese central bank to introduce any changes.
As for modifying the yield curve control, 57% of economists forecast a widening of the current tolerance range on the 10-year yields target while 43% expect the BOJ to change the control target to a shorter-term bond yield instead. On the latter, Ueda floated the idea here that perhaps policymakers are looking to shift policy to the 5-year yields.
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